The BJP, which secured 303 seats in the Lok Sabha in 2019, saw its numbers drop to 240 in 2024, forcing it to rely on coalition partners to form the government for a third term. Party leaders believe this setback was due, in part, to voter apathy among the salaried middle class, which had expressed frustration over rising costs and stagnant disposable income.

A senior BJP functionary noted that while the Opposition’s “false campaign” on constitutional issues impacted the elections, middle-class discontent also played a role. “Many salaried individuals felt they had less money in hand, but under PM Modi’s leadership, this concern has now been addressed. The party has shown it listens to the people,” the leader said.

In Bihar, where elections are scheduled for later this year, the budget included multiple infrastructure and employment initiatives aimed at boosting the BJP’s coalition government with the Janata Dal (United). Though no specific schemes were introduced for Delhi due to the ongoing model code of conduct, the increased tax exemption limit of ₹12 lakh is expected to appeal to the city’s large salaried workforce.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi described the budget as a “people’s budget,” while BJP leaders emphasized that it reflected the party’s attentiveness to public sentiment. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and BJP’s grassroots cadres had repeatedly flagged concerns over inflation and rising costs, pushing for tax relief as a crucial step toward easing middle-class financial strain.

“In the last decade, policies focused on infrastructure, employment generation, and economic growth. However, there was growing dissatisfaction among middle-class voters, who felt overlooked in favor of schemes for the poor, youth, farmers, and women,” said a BJP leader.

A Lokniti-CSDS study in 2024 revealed that BJP’s support among middle and upper-middle-class voters declined from 38% in 2019 to 35% in 2024. This data reinforced the need for policy adjustments to win back this crucial segment of the electorate.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah echoed this sentiment, stating, “The middle class is always in PM Modi’s heart. The zero-income tax policy for incomes up to ₹12 lakh will greatly enhance their financial well-being.”

Another BJP leader highlighted the necessity of balancing welfare policies for lower-income groups with measures that benefit the middle class. “Free rations, medical care, and LPG subsidies expanded our support base, but the middle class felt neglected. While they make up 20-30% of voters, their influence is significant. The 2004 elections showed how a dissatisfied middle class could impact outcomes,” the leader said.

Organizations affiliated with the RSS played a pivotal role in shaping the budget, communicating key concerns from various labor unions, MSME groups, and farmer collectives. These groups emphasized tax simplification, gig worker insurance, expanded agricultural support, and policies promoting domestic manufacturing under Atmanirbhar Bharat.

An RSS official acknowledged the government’s responsiveness to these demands. “We conveyed the ground reality—there was a strong call for tax restructuring and middle-class benefits. It is encouraging to see these issues addressed in the budget,” he said.

As assembly elections in Delhi and Bihar approach, the BJP is betting on its middle-class tax relief measures to rebuild voter confidence and strengthen its political standing in key states. Whether this strategy translates into electoral gains remains to be seen.

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Manoj Varshney, a travel agency owner in Delhi, believes this decision will stimulate economic activity. “The middle-class will now have more disposable income, which they will likely spend on travel, shopping, and dining out. This will, in turn, boost various sectors of the economy,” he said.

Beyond financial implications, political analysts suggest that this tax relief could influence the upcoming Delhi assembly elections. The BJP has historically been the preferred choice of the middle-class, and this budget announcement may reinforce that loyalty. Some believe it will also encourage higher voter turnout among Gen Z and millennials, who form a significant part of this demographic.

Delhi has one of the highest concentrations of taxpayers in the country, and according to data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), it also has a substantial proportion of salaried workers. This makes the budget’s tax relief particularly relevant for the city. Political experts argue that while this move could help BJP consolidate its support among the middle-class, it may not drastically alter the overall electoral outcome, as lower-income groups remain a major voting bloc in Delhi.

BS Vohra, president of the East Delhi RWAs Joint Front, emphasized the widespread impact of the tax relief. “Even households earning above ₹12 lakh will feel the effect because nearly every family has at least one member in this bracket. The additional income will provide financial breathing room for many families,” he said.

The budget announcement has also shifted the focus of the Delhi elections, which had been largely dominated by debates on welfare schemes and free services. With elections scheduled for February 5, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is seeking a third consecutive term, while the BJP is hoping to capitalize on voter dissatisfaction with the current administration. The Congress, aiming to regain relevance after poor performances in the last two assembly elections, has yet to make significant inroads.

Praffulit Bisht, an assistant professor at Miranda House, believes the tax announcement could reshape public perception. “There has been a sentiment that the Centre has ignored the middle-class for too long. This budget shows that their concerns are finally being addressed,” he said.

Ashwini Marwah, general secretary of the Lajpat Nagar Traders’ Association, noted that middle-class voters have traditionally been overlooked in the race for votes. “This budget sends a clear message that the government values the middle-class, not just in Delhi but across India. However, whether this translates into electoral gains for the BJP remains to be seen,” he said.

Alka Kapoor, principal of Modern Public School in Shalimar Bagh, echoed similar sentiments. “For too long, the middle-class has been neglected in policymaking. Any move that eases our financial burden is welcome. This tax relief will benefit not just individuals but entire families,” she said.

Delhi BJP chief Virendra Sachdeva praised the budget, stating that it aligns with the aspirations of salaried professionals and young urban workers. “By increasing the income tax relief limit to ₹12 lakh, the Modi government has empowered the middle-class like never before,” he said.

A senior BJP leader, speaking on condition of anonymity, noted that the party already has a strong presence among the middle and upper-income groups. “This budget further strengthens our position. Along with the upcoming eighth pay commission, these measures will help us consolidate our base,” he said.

The Aam Aadmi Party, which had earlier advocated for a tax rebate up to ₹10 lakh, argued that the budget did not go far enough. AAP leader Sanjay Singh questioned the lack of relief for small business owners. “This budget favors salaried individuals, but what about small and medium business owners? Where is their relief?” he asked.

Political analyst Sajjan Kumar Singh of PRACCIS highlighted the economic divide in Delhi’s electorate. “The middle-class has always leaned towards the BJP, and this budget will likely reinforce that trend. However, Delhi’s largest voting bloc consists of lower-middle-class and working-class voters. While the BJP may gain in vote share, achieving a clear majority could still be a challenge,” he said.

As Delhi prepares for the upcoming elections, the tax relief announced in the budget is likely to remain a major talking point. Whether it translates into electoral gains for the BJP or simply reinforces existing loyalties remains to be seen.

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